Council SEND deficits in England are on course to pass £10 billion within two years, even after the government wipes out most of the debt councils have already built up. At the same time, the Department for Education is shaping the specialist provision packages that will sit at the heart of future education, health and care plans (EHCPs).
Here are 17 things worth knowing about SEND deficits and EHCP reform, particularly for SENCOs, inclusion leads, headteachers and teachers supporting pupils with special educational needs and disabilities.
1. SEND deficits could reach a record £10.4 billion
The County Councils Network (CCN) has warned that council deficits on high needs spending could hit £10.4 billion by March 2028. The Office for Budget Responsibility had previously forecast deficits of more than £9 billion over the same two-year period.
2. That figure comes after historic debts are written off
The £10.4 billion is new debt. It is the shortfall councils expect to build up between now and 2028, on top of the historic deficits the government has already agreed to clear.
3. The government is writing off 90 per cent of existing deficits
Ministers have agreed to wipe 90 per cent of the SEND deficits councils built up by April 2026. Schools Week estimates this could cost nearly £6 billion, with payments due later this year.
4. The write-off comes with conditions
Councils only receive the funding in return for an approved local SEND reform plan. Some councils have already been told to rework their plans before they can be signed off, so it is worth finding out where your local authority stands.
5. Councils will keep building deficits until 2028
The government will take on responsibility for SEND cost pressures from 2028. Until then, any new overspend stays with councils, which is why they are worried about the next two years.
6. The shortfall is expected to grow quickly
A survey of 89 councils by the Association of Local Authority Treasurers’ Societies found they expect the shortfall to reach £4.8 billion by March 2027, more than doubling to £10.4 billion a year later.
7. Councils want a second bailout
The CCN wants a firm commitment that deficits built up until March 2028 will also be written off. It says that without removing 90 per cent of the remaining debt by 2029, many councils face financial disaster.
8. Some councils fear bankruptcy even with support
One in 10 councils surveyed said that even a further write-off might not be enough to stop them going bankrupt. That matters for schools, because councils under financial strain often have to make difficult choices about other local services.
9. EHCP applications have risen sharply
Councils report a sharp increase in EHCP applications since the government announced its SEND reforms in February. Many families appear to be applying now, before the system changes.
10. The number of pupils with EHCPs rose by 13 per cent
Official statistics show the number of children and young people with an EHCP rose by 13 per cent between January 2025 and January 2026. For many SENCOs, that growth is already visible in caseloads and paperwork.
11. EHCPs are due to be reserved for the most complex needs
Under the reforms, EHCPs would be reserved for pupils with the most complex needs from 2035. Most pupils with SEND would instead be supported through mainstream provision and earlier access to specialists.
12. Specialist provision packages are being developed
An expert panel led by the government’s inclusion adviser, Tom Rees, is drawing up specialist provision packages (SPPs). These will set out the support pupils with complex needs should expect to receive before an EHCP is issued.
13. Seven packages were originally planned
The DfE’s indicative list, published in February, covers areas including:
- Profound and multiple learning difficulties
- Significant executive function needs, and complex executive function and communication needs
- Social and emotional development, including externalising and internalising behaviour
- Sensory impairment
- Physical disability
14. There could be more than seven
Speaking at the Tes SEND Show, the DfE’s director of SEND, Claire Burton, said it would be fine if more packages were needed. Her priority, she said, was making sure children do not slip through the gaps.
15. Practitioners worry one package may not fit every child
Elizabeth Rhodes, national lead for student inclusion at Oasis Community Learning, warned that two autistic pupils whose needs present very differently could be placed on the same package. That, she said, could make genuinely inclusive practice harder. The DfE says the expert panel is aware of the risk.
16. The government says more support is coming
The government says it inherited a system under immense strain and always expected deficits and EHCP applications to rise before the reforms take effect. Alongside the write-off, it points to investment in early access to specialists such as speech and language therapists, and says details of further support for councils will follow by March 2028.
17. There is plenty SENCOs can do now
The current EHCP system remains in place for now, and families’ legal rights have not changed. While the reforms take shape, SENCOs and schools can:
- Keep clear records of need, provision and impact through the graduated approach.
- Find out what your local authority’s SEND reform plan says and how it affects schools.
- Talk honestly with families about what is changing and what is not.
- Build staff confidence in adapting teaching for pupils with SEND in mainstream classrooms.
- Follow the DfE’s updates on specialist provision packages as the expert panel’s work develops.
Find Out More
Schools Week: Councils call for more bailouts as SEND deficits to top £10bn
Schools Week: More specialist provision packages than planned ‘fine’, says DfE
DfE: Specialist provision packages
DfE statistics: Education, health and care plans 2026
How is your school preparing for the SEND reforms? Teach17 would love to hear from SENCOs and inclusion leads. Get in touch.